Confirmation Bias

Excellent blog on Confirmation Bias which the left is fully committed to.

But first, Definition of term: Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities. It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Biased search, interpretation and memory have been invoked to explain attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the irrational primacy effect (a greater reliance on information encountered early in a series) and illusory correlation (when people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations).

A series of experiments in the 1960s suggested that people are biased toward confirming their existing beliefs. Later work re-interpreted these results as a tendency to test ideas in a one-sided way, focusing on one possibility and ignoring alternatives. In certain situations, this tendency can bias people’s conclusions. Explanations for the observed biases include wishful thinking and the limited human capacity to process information. Another explanation is that people show confirmation bias because they are weighing up the costs of being wrong, rather than investigating in a neutral, scientific way.

Confirmation biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. Poor decisions due to these biases have been found in political and organizational contexts.

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/156540315831/be-careful-what-you-wish-for-especially-if-it-is

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The Emperor Has No Clothes

Found this meme on Facebook yesterday, posted by a California Liberal.

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I replied, “Incorrect. The Rebels took down the Hillary Death Star and now we are living in ‘The Empire Strikes Back’. ”

Naturally, that got censored. 🙂

With the media and leftist hysterical every second of every day running around screaming about the end of the world as they knew it can you really be surprised?

The Dark Side is strong with them…And they want their Empire Back.

And no one hates more than the Left does right now.

 

I love Ted

This is why I wanted Ted Cruz for President.

He crucifies this twat.

“And I assume that the Sierra Club would issue a public retraction if confronted with the facts? That the data are precisely as I described. That over the last 18 years there has been no significant warming. And indeed that is why global alarmists invented the term ‘the pause’ to explain what they call the pause in global warming because the data demonstrate what you just said that the Earth is cooking and warming is not backed up by the data.”

“You know, Mr. Mair, I find it striking that for a policy organization that purports to focus exclusively on environmental issues, that you are not willing to tell this committee that you would issue a retraction if your testimony is objectively false under scientific data. That undermines the credibility of any organization.”

He could invent a new drinking game for how many times this guy says “97% of the Scientists” and get son drunk you’d actually think a Liberal makes sense… 🙂

 

Lost in Translation II

John Hawkins: Last week, I put out The Liberal Translation Guide: 20 Translations of Things That Liberals Say and people were like, “Woah, I had no idea that when liberals say they want ‘organic food;’ what they really mean is that they want to EAT BABIES.” Okay, that’s not true at all. But, what is true is that people loved those translations and wanted more. Now it’s time to give the people what they want…

1) “Dressing up as a giant vagina in public” — The best way to preserve the dignity of women.

2) “Nazi” – Germans who attempted to take over the world during WWII and members of the American Nazi Party. Oh, and Donald Trump….And Mitt Romney, too. George W. Bush? Of course! Definitely all the Tea Party members and the people who voted for Trump. Conservatives in general? Sure. Come to think of it, pretty much every American who doesn’t agree with any part of the liberal agenda.

And if not that: Use Racist, Homophobic, Transphobic, Islamophobic, sexist, and/or bigot. Did I leave anything or anyone out? 🙂

3) “Fetus” – A life-sucking parasite with no soul that feeds off the life of a woman and should be destroyed via abortion before you have a party celebrating its demise, unless you want the fetus, in which case it’s a sweet, loving baby.  

The power of life and death, who lives and who dies. Don’t you dare get in the way of that. Unless it’s a gun, then you have right to use or even own it you nutjob.

4) “Corporate Welfare” – Something that’s horrible and should never happen unless it involves Planned Parenthood, PBS or NPR.

Or any other Liberal Elite institution.

5) “Fake News” – News from non-liberal sources which are, by definition, fake because they make you stick your hands in your ears and yell, “La-La-La, I don’t want to hear from conservatives, la-la-la!”.’

Not Ministry of Truth approved.

6) “Stolen Election” – Relatively close elections that Republicans must have won with the help of Vladimir Putin, Jeb Bush or the Koch brothers.

Even if it can be proven that so far at least a third of Hillary popular vote victory was from non-citizens voting. That doesn’t matter.

7) “Homophobes” – Christians who believe in the almost universally agreed upon standards of male/female marriage that existed for thousands of years until liberals decided that the foundation of our civilization isn’t trendy enough.

See also “Nazi” or KKK.

8) “Xenophobe” – Americans who believe we should put our country’s interests ahead of other nations like Mexico, Iran and France.

Also, you believe in a border, at all. The term “illegal alien” set off yourn Thoughtcrime Filters and your mind shuts down at the concept.

9) “Diversity” – A group of liberals who agree on every single issue, but also happen to be gay, black, female, Hispanic or transsexual.

Can also be used to shame any non-liberal, because after all Diversity is a Holy Writ of Sanctimony for Liberals so only they can decree it’s existence from on high.

10) “Investment” – Wasting billions of dollars on useless government programs and giveaways that produce nothing of value.

11) “White Privilege” – The special superpowers gifted to white people that insure that there will never be a black President and all white people will always be wealthy and successful without having to work for it.

And all white people are inherently and genetically created with the Original Sin of Racism and must be repent for their sins by grovelling at the feet of a Liberal and begging their forgiveness.

 

12) “The constitution is a living, breathing document.” – If there are enough liberals on a court, they can ignore the law and override democracy to implement a left-wing agenda.

The Constitution is a tool for manipulation to be disregarded when it conflicts with The Agenda and/or Narrative.

13) “Patriotism” – Hatefully complaining about every real or imaginary fault of America while unfavorably comparing our country to places like Cuba and China.

See also “racism”, “sexism” and “xenophobia”. This a ‘disease’ that Liberal loathe.

14) “Violent rhetoric” – Words like “crossfire,” “job killing,”  “crosshairs,” and “targeted” when used by Republicans.

“Nasty Woman” Ashley or “bomb”er Madonna are non-violent by comparison.

15) “Detroit” – An extremely liberal city in a liberal state that must have been run into the ground and bankrupted by Republicans despite the fact that it hasn’t had a Republican mayor since 1962.

See “Robocop” (1984). It’s not Fiction. 🙂

16) “Radical Islam” – Words you’re not supposed to say because it may make people who are trying to kill us in the name of their religion mad.

You Xenophobe!

17) “Choice” – A wonderful thing when it comes to killing babies, but awful when it’s applied to guns, schools, opting out of Social security or having less government in your life.

denier

18) “Rape Culture” – When men want to have sex with women and worse yet, don’t bother to use consent forms for everything from hand holding to dirty sex on the hood of a car.

Make sure you have it on tape, signed in triplicate, notarized and witnessed by at least 3 credible females (males will be thrown out as biased).

19) “Vagina hats” – What you wear to let everyone know you’re serious people.

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20) “Love Trumps Hate” – Screaming obscenities, smashing windows and assaulting people to show that you’re loving and they’re hateful.

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Gruber Tales

The man who famously said that one of the reasons for the success of ObamaCare’s passage was due to the stupidity of the American populace is at i8t again, post-Obama.

After orchestrating a relentless campaign of deception about the law he designed, established liar Jonathan Gruber and his fellow propagandists have since made a series of admissions about Obamacare that undercut the mendacious sell-job he helped pioneer. Gruber stated privately, on several occasions, that his future analysis of the legal battle over state-based exchanges and subsidy eligibility would be dishonest, conceding the core argument of those anti-Obamacare lawsuits. Another Obamacare architect, Zeke Emanuel, finally confessed that people really couldn’t necessarily keep their doctors and plans — and that maybe the law wasn’t especially “affordable” after all. Now here’s Gruber sparring with Tucker Carlson last night, tossing another key Obamacare marketing slogan overboard. Democrats promoted their partisan scheme as a win/win panacea that would benefit everybody.  No more:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvDlBIaZV9w
    “This was never supposed to help everybody, Tucker,” Gruber said… Gruber proceeded to say that wealthy Americans were hurt by the new taxes implemented by the Affordable Care Act. He also admitted that young, healthy people were hurt by Obamacare because the law eliminated the “discriminatory” health insurance market that existed before the law took effect. “The people who oppose the law are people who haven’t benefited from the law, but haven’t been hurt from the law,” he said. “They’ve just heard, in my view, they’ve heard a lot of bad misinformation about it.”

Ah, he’s back to the old, dumb “disinformation” chestnut, which once inspired hapless and frustrated former HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius to muse about mass re-education. The problem is that the real-world results have been the opposite of these people said would happen.  We have them on tape.  Reality, not rhetoric, has burst the ‘Affordable’ Care Act bubble. Its defenders used to insist that Obamacare would create millions of winners and no losers. Coverage would be significantly expanded, costs would fall for all Americans, all while lowering healthcare-related spending and deficits. That fantasy has been endlessly exposed as a fraud, leaving people like Gruber with no choice but to tell the truth: There were always going to be winners and losers. What Gruber doesn’t add is that the losers have consistently outnumbered the winners, which is why the law has remained so unpopular:

As we’ve pointed out on multiple occasions, the number of Americans unaffected by Obamacare (the majority, for now) is designed to shrink under the law. We know this, in part, thanks to the behind-closed-doors candor of…Jonathan Gruber. And from the White House’s internal calculations. Democrats’ proposed “fixes” to the law would hasten the collapse of the individual market through a non-competitive “public option,” which would incentivize more employers to dump their workers into a government-subsizied pool — which, in turn, would crowd out the private market (which is already an accelerating trend). Other proposed methods of mending the failing law include spending even more money on subsidies, and whacking consumers with even higher fines for not being able to afford the increasing premiums, via the already-hated individual mandate tax. Obamacare is a stalling, wheezing, expensive, mandate-laden mess that may be helping some people, but is harming far more while violating virtually every central promise upon which it was built. It must be repealed and replaced with something better. That won’t be easy, but I cannot endorse center-right columnist Matt Lewis’ suggestion that the GOP should consider punting on the issue:

    The more I talk to conservative-leaning health care policy experts—sources that had previously helped me understand the debacle that would become Obamacare—the more convinced I am that this could all go horribly wrong…“It feels like Bush’s Social Security all over again,” one senior industry official told me. “It’s really hard to see how this ends up with as many people being covered at the same or lower costs. It’s a mess.” Even that may be a best-case scenario. Social Security reform was a bust that wasted President George W. Bush’s second-term political capital, but Republicans didn’t repeal Social Security. There is always the danger that this could go catastrophically wrong. Should Republicans actually kick off a new administration by engaging in a fool’s errand that is almost guaranteed to backfire? Sometimes you have to punt.

An Obamacare punt would be an unforgivable betrayal of the Republican base, which has righteously opposed the law since it was proposed in 2009. Republicans have run on repealing the law over four consecutive election cycles, winning both houses of Congress and the presidency in the process. To walk away from the problem now that they wield full control would be a harsh slap in the face to millions of voters. It cannot happen. And of course there’s the more important point that Obamacare is hurting real people, and needs to be uprooted. I share some of Lewis’ fears — namely, (a) that Republican infighting will stand in the way of a viable consensus alternative that can rally the sort of unity that will be required to accomplish something so technically difficult, and (b) that Democrats will obstinately block any effort to clean up the mess that they’ve created, then seek to blame the resulting chaos on Republicans. Sen. Claire McCaskill previewed that “party of no” strategy during Dr. Tom Price’s confirmation hearings this week: “What we have after the repeal is Trump care,” she said, suggesting that Republicans would garner zero Democratic votes.  

McCaskill represents a state that went heavily for Donald Trump in November and is seen as quite vulnerable in 2018. It’s also a bit rich listening to her whine about the possibility of party-line votes, given that she happily walked Obamacare’s hyper-partisan plank for her team in 2009 and 2010.  But her comments underscore the point that Republicans must not only rally behind a strong replacement plan; they need to be prepared to mercilessly blast Democrats who refuse to permit votes on ensuing solutions. Democrats used endless lies to foist an expensive scheme on an unwilling public. It has failed, based on the promises and metrics they established. And now that Republicans are fulfilling an unambiguous and consistent campaign promise, Democrats would rather have millions suffer and lose coverage, and watch costs continue to explode, than allow their failed experiment to be replaced. They’ve badly screwed up healthcare once, and now they’re poised to do it again. If that’s how they want to play this, they need to pay a painful political price.  Again.  I’ll leave you with Paul Ryan discussing the future of Obamacare on MSNBC last evening (the healthcare bit starts around the ten minute mark, and runs for about five minutes):
With the formerly credible Greta Van Sustern:

media-liar

Make America Dumb Again

Everything with the Left boils down to a) discrimination or b) racism. Both of which they then ‘exploit’ using fear and paranoia.

More “tolerance” and “diversity” ahead… 🙂

Several professors at the University of California, Irvine encouraged their students to skip classes Friday to protest President Trump’s inauguration.

    One professor even encouraged students to “say hi” if they “see me at a protest Friday or Saturday.”

    Turnout was low during the walkout due to heavy rain, though a committed group of roughly 100 endured the elements to display signs reading “Fuck Amerikkka” and “No to fascism.”

Then, the real fun begins…

According to an anti-fascist group (aka leftist SJW fascist wanna-be’s) at the University of Kansas, flyers calling “Make America Great Again” and “anarcho-capitalism” coded language for neo-nazism were posted by the KU School of Social Welfare.

The flyers in question were found throughout campus Tuesday, including in Strong Hall and Twente Hall, and were sent anonymously to Campus Reform by students believing them to be the work of informal “anti-fascist” student groups that have sprung up in the wake of Donald Trump’s election.

“Below are pictures of a flyer from the School of Social Welfare…on how to spot coded racist language…”   

In addition to deciphering “coded” neo-Nazi language, the flyer warns that “opponents of safe spaces” may be more prone to joining white nationalist groups, and suggests that flyers from “hate groups” on campus should be torn down and reported.

 

Campus Reform reached out to Stand With ME—an anti-fascist, anti-Trump group at KU that recently labeled Young America’s Foundation a “hate group”—to ask whether the group was responsible for the flyers.

Stand With ME denied responsibility, but praised the flyers, which they jubilantly claimed had been created and distributed by the School of Social Welfare.

After Campus Reform confirmed its intention to report on the flyer and its creator, Stand With ME quipped back, “Report it. bye felicia [sic].”

Furthering the claims of Stand With ME was a Facebook post by a KU student who also attributed the flyers to the SOSW, accompanying photos with a caption reading, “Below are pictures of a flyer from the School of Social Welfare.”

“At this point, I’m sure you’ve heard about neo-Nazi groups recruiting on campus since the inauguration,” the student wrote. “Below are pictures of a flyer from the School of Social Welfare, available in Twente Hall, on how to spot coded racist language and symbols, and how to respond to any flyers, chalking, conversations, witnessed harassment, and the like.”

A commenter argued that students should not “normalize violence against people for their politics” but the student poster disagreed, saying “It shouldn’t be a radical or polarizing topic to say, ‘punch a nazi [sic].’”

[RELATED: Female student attacked for wearing Trump hat on campus]

“They are morally abhorrent, and we can’t treat this like a government spending disagreement,” the student declared.

Joshua Muse, a freshman at KU and a member of the school’s YAF chapter, said he found the flyer “laughable” in its cavalier handling of the accusation.

“It’s not a new tactic at all from the left to label those who disagree with them as Nazis; however, they usually try to have as much tact as [they] can when calling someone that,” he told Campus Reform. “In this case, they didn’t even try and it’s laughable.”

Muse also asserted that the demonization of Trump supporters on campus is nothing new, explaining that he has been called “a white supremacist, racist, and xenophobe simply for my support of Trump and his policies during the campaign.”

Campus Reform reached out to the School of Social Welfare for confirmation or denial of its role in posting the flyers, but did not receive a response in time for publication.

Campus Reform also contacted KU Media Relations on Wednesday morning and was told to expect a statement by 10:00 a.m. (EST). Shortly before 1:00 p.m., KU Director for News and Media Relations Erinn Barcomb-Peterson provided a statement asserting that “the fliers gave no indication of who produced or posted them” and citing the school’s policy on posting signage.

The new McCarthyism, Are you now or have you even been a Trump Supporter…

vigina

 

Lies, Damned Lies…

and FORMER President Barack Hussein Obama.

The Washington Post marked the end of the Obama administration with a list Thursday that likely didn’t please the outgoing president’s supporters.

For the last five years, the Post has made its political Fact Checker a staple of the publication. Ranked by “Pinocchios,” contenders receive one Pinocchio for a little lie and can earn up to four Pinocchios for the most outrageous of fibs.

Though the Post ran its trademark Fact Checker during President Barack Obama’s first campaign, it wasn’t until 2011 that it became a fixture there, so admittedly the publication missed some blatant dishonesty.

But the newspaper has fact-checked more than 250 statements made by the current president. On his last full day in office, the Post published a catalogue of Obama’s 10 biggest lies.

Included on the list, unsurprisingly, was Obama’s statement to the American public while rallying for Congress to pass his signature health-care legislation, Obamacare: “If you like your health care plan, you can keep it.”

“If you like your health-care plan, you can keep it”
This memorable promise by Obama backfired on him in 2013 when the Affordable Care Act went into effect and at least 2 million Americans started receiving cancellation notices. As we explained, part of the reason for so many cancellations is because of an unusually early (March 23, 2010) cutoff date for grandfathering plans — and because of tight regulations written by the administration. So the uproar could be pinned directly on the administration’s own actions.

Another whopper was Obama’s claim that all but 10 percent of the federal deficit was due to former President George W. Bush’s policies. Pushing back against criticisms of running up the deficit at an unparalleled rate with stimulus packages and bailouts, Obama made this claim during his 2012 campaign.

“90 percent of the budget deficit is due to George W. Bush’s policies”
During the 2012 campaign, Obama repeatedly reminded voters that he became president during a grim economic crisis. But he went too far when he claimed that only 10 percent of the federal deficit was due to his own policies. About half of the deficit stemmed from the recession and forecasting errors, but a large chunk (44 percent in 2011) were the result of Obama’s actions. At another point, Obama also falsely suggested that the Bush tax cuts led to the Great Recession.

And throughout Obama’s two terms in office, he has been quick to dismiss clear acts of terrorism — using phrases like “workplace violence” or blaming a YouTube video for an attack on the American consulate in Benghazi, Libya. The Post also included his categorization of the Benghazi attack as “an act of terror” and his reference to ISIS as a “JV team.”

“The day after Benghazi happened, I acknowledged that this was an act of terrorism”
Obama did refer to an “act of terror” in the immediate aftermath of the 2012 Benghazi attacks, but in vague terms, wrapped in a patriotic fervor. He never affirmatively stated that the American ambassador died because of an “act of terror.” Then, over a period of two weeks, given three opportunities in interviews to affirmatively agree that the Benghazi attack was a terrorist attack, the president obfuscated or ducked the question. So this was a case of taking revisionist history too far for political reasons.

“I didn’t call the Islamic State a ‘JV’ team”
In 2014, Obama repeated a claim, crafted by the White House communications team, that he was not “specifically” referring to the Islamic State terror group when he dismissed the militants who had taken over Fallujah as a “JV squad.” But The Fact Checker obtained the previously unreleased transcript of the president’s interview with the New Yorker, and it’s clear that’s who the president was referencing.

But the Post did leave out some key falsehoods recited by Obama over the years. Here are a few:

“Over the past eight years, no foreign terrorist organization has successfully executed an attack on our homeland that was directed from overseas.”

Playing a semantics game, Obama misrepresented the fact that there have been many terrorist attacks carried out on American soil by those with ties to foreign terrorist organizations. In fact, in the case of the 2009 Fort Hood shooting in Killeen, Texas, Major Nidal Hasan murdered 14 people on the military base while shouting “allahu akbar” and was shown to be in direct contact with Al Qaeda terrorist leader Anwar al-Awlaki prior to the attack.

ISIS themselves also claimed responsibility for a 2015 attack in Garland, Texas, when two men were taken down by police officers after they shot up a community center hosting a Muhammad cartoon contest.

Over the last eight years, there were even more terrorist-related attacks in the country, including the San Bernardino attack, Boston Marathon attack, and a 2009 Little Rock, Arkansas, attack when Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad shot two soldiers at a military recruiting station. Muhammad also had ties to al-Qaeda.


“Let me say this as plainly as I can: by Aug. 31, 2010, our combat mission in Iraq will end.”

Obama claimed that combat operations would be finished by 2010 and later took credit for ending U.S. combat in Iraq. But his own former Defense Secretary Robert Gates disputed that in 2016, the White House did a “disservice” to troops by engaging in word games.

“I think that it is incredibly unfortunate not to speak openly about what’s going on,” Gates told MSNBC. “American troops are in action, they are being killed, they are in combat. And these semantic backflips to avoid using the term combat is a disservice to those who are out there putting their lives on the line.”


“We have not had a major scandal in my administration.”

Obama sidestepped the comprehensive list of scandals that plagued his tenure as president. These scandals include but are not limited to: the Operation Fast and Furious gun walking scandal, the IRS scandal involving IRS workers intentionally targeting Tea Party organizations, and his own Secretary of State Hillary Clinton using a private email server.

He was, after all. perfect. And you Neanderthals rejected him and his surrogate successor.

And Orwellian word games are still afoot.

But those are my “alternative facts”. 🙂

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